英倫金融[外匯投資]：更多的咖啡因--行情走勢預測

市場使用了咖啡因—或者甚至是飲用了大量的功能飲料。真可怕，有否聽說過狐步舞？我覺得市場是在葬禮挽歌上表演這個舞蹈。這種情況足以能令我昏睡26個小時…
爭論過後，行情至少出現了之前我們所尋找的內容—但發展非常緩慢。發展速度可以加快嗎？我敢肯定不可以，但其中負責的團體仍然保持著緩慢的前進速度。總的來講，英鎊兌美元的走勢表現更明確些，但看起來像熱血忽然湧進大腦的感覺。正因為如此，這種價格運行表現往往意味著將會出現更深度的價格調整。同時，歐元兌美元和美元兌瑞士法郎的走勢情況看起來將有助於延續美元的上行趨勢，但還不能說，兩個歐系貨幣的發展情況將會給予英鎊的走勢發展帶來同樣的作用…
澳元方面，價格運行已到達了第一反轉目標，價格運行滯緩並出現週期迴圈走勢的跡象—這往往提示將有較大的風險出現。價格走勢情況會否給英鎊兌美元的價格運行帶來同樣的作用，而歐系貨幣的滯緩發展情況也是我們需要關注的要點。
美元兌日元的上漲，帶動了歐元兌日元進一步往高位運行—但仍然需要更多一些的推動，否則價格將重回下行趨勢，但也可能是出現更長時期的橫向運行區間。鑒於歐元兌美元似乎出現進一步下跌，我們需要觀察美元兌日元所起的催化情況，但不確定是否會快速啟動行情。我需要在美元兌日元的結構方面增加補充，貨幣對價格運行情況極度異常，並傾向於給我的感覺並不具備建設性--即使我把價格反彈視作潛在的推動來考慮。
總體而言，這確實意味著，今天可能又是複雜的一天…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
More caffeine!
Oh, for goodness sake… ply the market with caffeine – or even a copious supply of energy drinks. This is just awful. You’ve heard of the foxtrot? Well, I think the market is dancing to the funeral dirge. It’s enough to make me sleep 26 hours a day…
Rant over. At least we’re basically seeing what I have been looking for – but just so slowly. Will the pace accelerate? I’m pretty sure that it will not, but still maintains the pace of a group who carries the coffin. Of all, it was GBPUSD that made a more defined move but looks like it had a sudden gush of blood to its brain. As such, it tends to suggest a deeper pullback. At the same time it looks as if EURUSD and USDCHF will continue their Dollar bullish trend but I can’t say that either of the two Continentals will provide the same effort as the Pound…
The Aussie, having reached the first reversal target, stalled and saw its recycling - that was always a strong risk. Whether it will provide the same effort as GBPUSD or the slothful progress of the Continentals is something we shall have to observe…
USDJPY made further gains and drag EURJPY higher – and still needs to push a little more else it will return to the downside but probably in a longer sideways range. Given that EURUSD appears to require further losses we shall have to observe USDJPY for the catalyst but I’m not sure it’ll do so quickly. I should add that the structure in USDJPY is extremely unusual and does tend to give me the feeling that it’s not really constructive – even if I have treated this rally as potentially impulsive.